Fortuna Sittard are sitting in a surprising sixth place in the Eredivisie, but statistical models paint a very different picture. According to the Expected Position model from data and statistics bureau Opta, Danny Buijs's side should actually be in 18th and last place.
The analysis is based on the expected goals (xG) Fortuna create in matches. In the away wins at ADO Den Haag (2-3) and FC Groningen (2-3), Fortuna had only 0.55 and 0.87 xG respectively, but scored three times on each occasion. The team has scored 13 goals this season, while the xG data indicates a much lower expected tally. This explains the large gap between their actual league position and their statistically expected one.
Manager Danny Buijs acknowledges that an element of luck has been involved. "His team has also had some luck in the first weeks of the competition," the coach said. Nevertheless, Fortuna Sittard have taken a solid 13 points from seven games, giving them a considerable cushion above the relegation places.
The team now heads into a three-week international break on the back of recent results. Their last victory was a 0-1 win at Willem II, with Philip Brittijn scoring in the 79th minute. The full list of results and the current standings are available online. The next fixture is a home match against FC Twente on 10 October. Twente are currently fourth and won the last meeting in March by 1-2. For preparation ahead of that key match, the squad can be consulted on the squad page.
Background and full detail: l1nieuws.nl
